As per MSHI Climbing Stewards: SNOWSHOES or SKIS WITH SKINS are MISSION CRITICAL in winter. Crampons and an ice ax were also very important during this climb. Of 10 climbers that headed up on 12/31, only 4 made it to the rim. They were alternating between skis and crampons. I alternated between snowshoes and crampons.
Through the Forest: Patchy shallow snow with lots of exposed rock and dirt until well above the quarry. About 4' deep by the Chocolate Falls neighborhood (3500'). A nice, packed ski and snowshoe track once the snow begins.
Chocolate Falls neighborhood (3500-3900'). Snow 4-6' deep. Soft and deep.
Last trees to the seismograph (3900-5600'): Deep snow and some ice. Big cornice on east side of route over canyon.
Seismograph to 7000: Soft snow over thick ice or just ice.
East aspect of Monitor Ridge (7000-7650'): Deep snow.
Monitor Ridge to Rim (7650-8250'): Heavy rime ice and wind scoured snow.
Rim: Cornice is at least 20' into the crater.
AVI: Two very recent D1 slabs that occurred on rare patches with a fresh wind slab on top of the new snow on top of the hard ice layer. No signs of instability by mid-day.
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Ski: Ridges were a mess of ice and scoured snow, but the 4skiers that made the rim had an awesome ride in the valleys from the rim through the high end of the woods.
Glissade: Conditions unsuitable
Future: Another storm moves in tonight with heavy snow from Marble to the rim through mid-day Jan 1. After that high winds and heavy snow into the weekend (2-3' total). Summit temps in the 20's and rain at Marble. Route conditions by the end of the storm will probably look a lot like today.
CLIMBING OUTLOOK
Snow Parks: There is no snow at the Cougar SnowPark. Snow at Marble is patchy and will continue melting this week with overnight lows above freezing and a lot of heavy rain. There is deep snow on the ski trails higher up and skis or snowshoes are required. The road and parking are plowed.
Ski: There are many snow-free stretches in the first mile of trails headed uphill from Marble and on the June Lake Trail. Heavy rain and high freezing levels this week won't help. There is plenty of snow, and a lot of ice, above Chocolate Falls.
Climb: Dense fog and whiteout conditions with blowing snow will make navigation above the treeline very difficult this weekend. There will be no markers or footprints to follow. There will be a lot of hard ice on the upper mountain. Getting lost is not an option in these cold windy conditions, especially for climbers that get wet in the rain at lower altitudes.
Thursday 1/2: Summit 23 F with winds to 25 mph (wind chill 7F). Freezing rain in the woods and 1-3" of snow above the tree line. Very foggy with whiteout conditions likely. Avi yellow but note that NWAC says "but the volcanoes are outliers".
Friday 1/3: Heavy rain at Marble and heavy snow above the tree line (6-10"). High winds (40+ mph), and 25 F on the summit (wind chill 5 F). Dense fog, white out conditions. Avi yellow but note that NWAC says "but the volcanoes are outliers".
Saturday 1/4: High winds (35+ mph), very cold (25 F, wind chill 0F), heavy snow, whiteout conditions. Rain at Marble Mtn. Avi risk will increase.
Sunday 1/5: Winds 25 mph, summit temp 23 F (wind chill 7 F). Light snow continues until mid-day with light rain at Marble Mtn. Fog , flat light, blowing snow, and whiteout conditions will continue to make navigation very difficult. Be sure to check NWAC!
Monday 1/6 and onward: It looks like the storm ends Sunday and there may be some sunshine and ridiculously warm temps (well above freezing on the summit) through mid-week. Warm temps and sun may increase the avi risk.
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